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Marin Napa Sonoma Real Estate Report

03 Jan 2015 Posted by NooshiAdmin in Blog, Market News, Newsletter

North Bay Home Sales, Values & Appreciation

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The North Bay Luxury Home Market

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Real Estate Cycles

The chart below illustrates in a simplified manner the market cycles of the past 30+ years. It is based on the S&P Case-Shiller Index pertaining to Bay Area “high-price tier” homes, the segment which dominates the Marin County market. The Napa and Sonoma cycles were similar except for the magnitudes of the recent subprime bubble, crash and recovery – all of which were bigger than Marin’s.

We are approximately 3 years into the current recovery. Since the 1980’s, recoveries have typically lasted 5 to 7 years before peaking – which isn’t necessarily how this cycle will play out.

 

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North Bay Home Sales by Property Type

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Sales with and without Price Reductions

Those North Bay listings that sold without price reductions sold relatively quickly and averaged a sales price within 1% of asking price. Those listings that went through one or more price reductions saw large discounts off original list price and, on average, took 67 to 81 days longer to sell.And a good percentage of listings didn’t sell at all.

Even in a strong market, correct pricing, preparation and marketing remain vitally important to achieve the best possible result when selling one’s home.

 

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Months Supply of Inventory

The supply and demand dynamic continues to favor sellers, which, of course, has been the primary factor behind home-price appreciation.

 

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Mortgage Interest Rates

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How the Bay Area Spends its Money

On a lighter note, and to take a brief break from real estate, these two charts, which we’ve just added to our recent Bay Area Demographics Report, compare how we spend our money as compared to national averages.

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Please call or email if you have any questions or comments regarding these analyses.

Fluctuations in median sales prices and average dollar per square foot values are not unusual and these fluctuations can occur for other reasons besides changes in value, such as seasonality; inventory available to purchase; availability of financing; changes in buyer profile; and changes in the distressed and luxury segments. How these statistics apply to any particular property is unknown without a specific comparative market analysis. All data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and is subject to revision.

© 2015 Paragon Real Estate Group

New Case-Shiller: Bay Area Home Prices Tick Up a Little

31 Dec 2014 Posted by NooshiAdmin in Blog, Market Conditions, Market News

After the feverish spring 2014 market, home prices in the high-price tier – which applies best to San Francisco and Marin counties – flattened and then ticked down a little, while more affordable home segments continued to tick up: It’s not unusual for the market to cool off and plateau during the summer months. The October 2014 Case-Shiller Index just released (on December 30), begins to reflect the autumn selling season, which starts after Labor Day: The market typically begins to heat up again in autumn. (Note that transactions negotiated in September generally start closing in October.)

According to the newest Index, all Bay Area home price segments ticked up in October by about 1%, plus or minus depending on segment. Note that small monthly fluctuations are not particularly meaningful until substantiated over a longer term.

This chart tracks the high-tier-price market since the recovery began in 2012 using Case-Shiller data. The C-S numbers refer to a January 2000 value of “100”, thus 198 signifies a value 98% higher than that of January 2000.

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This chart below looks at the last 3 market cycles:

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And this chart show median San Francisco house and condo sales prices by quarter (reflecting sales reported by 12/26/14, so it contains newer data than Case-Shiller):

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San Francisco New Construction/Development Report

22 Dec 2014 Posted by NooshiAdmin in Blog, Market Conditions

Highlights from the Q3 2014 Pipeline Report by the SF Planning Department

December 2014, compiled by Paragon Real Estate Group

On December 19th, the San Francisco Planning Department issued its excellent Q3 2014 Pipeline Report, which tracks new residential and commercial development in the city. There is a wealth of data within its 36 pages: Below is simply an excerpt of some highlights.

The Pipeline includes projects in every stage of the approvals, permits and construction process, and being listed in the pipeline doesn’t indicate when or even if the project will be completed. Changes and additions to the pipeline occur on an ongoing basis: Indeed, it seems rarely a day goes by nowadays without a big new project being announced. Last but not least, changes in economic and political circumstances can suddenly and dramatically impact new development plans and construction.

  • 50,600 residential units are in the current pipeline, including condos, houses and apartments, as well as affordable and social-project housing. Houses constitute far less than 1% of the total units. (There are currently approximately 381,000 housing units in San Francisco, per 2013 U.S. Census data.)
  • 18,700,000 square feet of commercial space are in the pipeline, including office, retail, medical, hotel, cultural, institutional and educational uses. 12 million of the square footage in the pipeline are for office use. (As of 2013, there were approximately 75.6 million square feet of office space in the city.)
  • 3090 residential units and 280,000 square feet of commercial space have been added in the past 4 quarters. “The median time to completion for these projects from the first filing was 43 months.” For smaller projects of less than 10,000 square feet, the median time dropped to 30 months.
  • 6700 new residential units and 5,400,000 square feet of commercial space are currently under construction.
  • Approximately 25,800 of the pipeline’s residential units are comprised of the Bayview/Hunter’s Point/Candlestick, Park Merced and Treasure Island projects. “Full realization of the projects will be decades into the future.” The Bayview/Candlestick and Treasure Island developments are situated on parcels designated as “Public Land.”
  • Not counting the 3 big projects mentioned above, the great majority of both residential and commercial pipeline projects are currently clustered in the greater South Beach/South of Market/Mission Bay area, the Market Street corridor, the Potrero Hill/Dogpatch area, and the Mission.
  • Approximately 800,000 square feet of manufacturing, distribution and repair use space would be lost in the course of existing pipeline development, to be replaced by housing or other commercial uses.

The full Planning Department Pipeline Report can be downloaded here. There’s also a nifty interactive map illustrating projects in the pipeline. Our sincere gratitude to Aksel Olsen and Teresa Ojeda of the SF Planning Department for compiling this useful and comprehensive report.


The first and third charts below come straight from the Planning Department Pipeline Report. We created the two district-breakdown charts to separate out residential and commercial projects and to reflect more common neighborhood and district names as used in the real estate business (but even then, the names should be considered gross generalizations). And we added a snapshot of the Planning Department map to give an idea of the number of development projects in the city.

This snapshot from the interactive map on the Planning Department’s Pipeline report webpage indicates current projects in the greater South Beach/South of Market/Mission Bay district, Hayes Valley and the Market Street corridor.


*All information included herein is from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and is subject to revision.

Affordability by San Francisco Neighborhood

17 Dec 2014 Posted by NooshiAdmin in Blog, Market News

Where to Buy a Home in San Francisco for the Money You Want to Spend

To a large degree, if you’re buying a house in San Francisco, your price range effectively determines the possible neighborhoods to consider. That does not apply quite as much to condos and TICs: Generally speaking, in neighborhoods with high numbers of condo and TIC sales, there are buying options at a wide range of price points – though, obviously, size, quality, view and amenity considerations will come into play.

The charts below are based upon transactions reported to MLS for 2014. We’ve generally broken out the neighborhoods with the most sales within given price points. Of course, the era, style, amenities and average size of homes will vary widely between and within neighborhoods.

These charts will be easier to read if you adjust your screenview to zoom 125% or 150%. A San Francisco neighborhood map can be found at the bottom of this report.

Where to Buy a HOUSE for Less than $1 million in San Francisco

The overall median HOUSE price in the city at the end of 2014 was about $1,150,000. The vast majority of house sales under $1,000,000 occur in a large swath of neighborhoods forming a giant L shape, down the west side of the city, from Outer Richmond south through Sunset and Parkside to Ingleside and Oceanview, and then sweeping  east across the southern border of San Francisco through Excelsior and Portola to Bayview and Hunter’s Point. The southern border neighborhoods are by far the most affordable house markets in the city. (They don’t contain many condos at this point, though some big developments are planned.)

The horizontal columns reflect the number of sales under $1m in 2014 for each area, while the median sales prices noted – to be as current as possible – are for all house sales in each area in the second half of the year.

2014_House-Sales_Up-to-1m

Where to Buy a CONDO, CO-OP OR TIC for Under $1 million in San Francisco

The overall SF median condo price at the end of 2014 was about $950,000, so the majority of condo and TIC sales are under $1m. These sales take place in virtually every area of the city that features these property types, but a studio unit in Nob Hill will cost the same as a 1 or 2 bedroom unit in Downtown. Some areas with large volumes of sales, such as South Beach/South of Market or Pacific Heights/Marina, offer units for sale at virtually every price point. In such districts, what will vary will be the prestige and amenities of the building, the size and graciousness of the unit, the floor the unit is located on, whether parking is included, and the existence of views and deeded outside space (decks, patios, or, less often, yards).

In the general category of condo, co-op and TIC sales in San Francisco, condos make up almost 90% of sales, TICs almost 10% and stock co-ops 1 to 2%. TICs typically sell at a significant discount (15% – 25%) to similar condos, but there are a number of factors that affect the exact price differential.

The horizontal columns reflect the number of sales under $1m in 2014 for each area, while the median sales prices noted are for all condo, co-op and TIC sales in each area in the second half of the year.

2014_Condo-TIC-Sales_Up-to-1m

Spending $1 Million to $1.5 Million

In this price point for houses, one starts moving into the big circle of neighborhoods in the middle of the city plus the Richmond District in the northwest. Within this collection of neighborhoods, one will typically get more house for one’s money in the Sunset, Parkside or Outer Richmond than in Miraloma Park, Bernal Heights or Glen Park – and much more than in neighborhoods such as Noe and Eureka Valleys.

In the charts below, the horizontal columns reflect the number of sales in each area, while the dollar amounts reflect average dollar per square foot values for the homes in this price range in the specified areas.

2014_SF-House-Sales_1m-1499k

Condo, co-op and TIC sales in this price range are mostly concentrated in those areas where newer (and expensive) condo developments have come on market – and continue to arrive in increasing numbers – over the last 10 years, as well as, of course, in high-end neighborhoods such as Pacific Heights & Russian Hill, and Noe, Cole & Eureka Valleys.

Dollar per square foot values can be affected by a wide variety of factors, including size: All things being equal, larger condos sell at lower dollar per square prices than smaller units. The greater Cole Valley area condos in this price range average over 1460 square feet (think: large, gracious, Edwardian flats), while South Beach condos in this price segment average about 1225 square feet (newer, modern, high-tech, often high-rise). That is part of the reason for the discrepancy in dollar per square foot values between these two areas.

2014_SF-Condo-Sales_1m-1499k

Buying a HOUSE for $1.5 million to $2 million

As the price range goes up, the number of sales begin to narrow. House sales in this price segment predominate in the central Realtor District 5, the greater Noe-Eureka-Cole Valleys area; District 4, the St. Francis Wood-Forest Hill-West Portal area; and District 1, Richmond-Lone Mountain-Lake Street. District 5 is the most expensive district for home sales in this price range, as can be seen in the average dollar per square foot values.

2014_SF-House-Sales_1500-1999k

Buying a LUXURY HOME in San Francisco

For the sake of this report, houses selling for $2 million and above, and condos, co-ops and TICs selling for $1.5 million and above are designated as luxury home sales. What you get in different neighborhoods for $2 million can vary widely – a large, gorgeous, immaculate house in one place, a fixer-upper in another.

Luxury home sales in San Francisco are dominated by the swath of established, prestige northern neighborhoods running from Sea Cliff through Pacific Heights and Russian Hill to Telegraph Hill, by the greater Noe-Eureka-Cole Valleys district, and, to a lesser extent, the smaller neighborhoods around St. Francis Wood. For luxury condos, the greater South Beach-Yerba Buena-Mission Bay area has a large and growing presence as big, dramatic, expensive condo projects have sprouted there over the past 15 years.

Luxury CONDO, CO-OP & TIC Sales

As one can see below, no area has more luxury condo, co-op and TIC sales overall than the Pacific Heights-Marina district, but the South Beach-Yerba Buena area is the fastest growing luxury condo market and will probably take first position in the not too distant future due to continuing new construction. The average dollar per square foot values for luxury condos in the major neighborhoods run $1001 in the Noe, Eureka and Cole Valleys district, $1049 in the Pacific Heights-Marina district, $1195 in the Russian-Nob-Telegraph Hills district, and $1328 in the greater South Beach-Yerba Buena area (think: new, luxury, high-floor units with spectacular views). For the absolute best units, dollar per square foot values can exceed $2000.

2014_SF-Condo-Sales_1500k-plus

Luxury HOUSE Sales

It wasn’t so long ago that houses selling in Realtor District 5, the greater Noe/Eureka/Cole Valleys area (which includes Clarendon, Corona and Ashbury Heights), for over $2 million were outliers. But that is not the case any longer – now, extremely wealthy people (such as Mark Zuckerberg) are buying homes here. Still for the time being, the very highest end of the luxury house market continues to be dominated by Realtor District 7, the Pacific & Presidio Heights-Marina area (which is generally home to the largest mansions in the city). There are several other significant areas for these large, expensive houses, such as Lake Street/Sea Cliff/Jordan Park, St. Francis Wood/Forest Hill and Lower Pacific Heights.

Note that dollar per square foot values vary widely between these districts.

2014_SF-House-Sales_2m-plus

Median Prices for 2-Bedroom Condos and 3-4 Bedroom Houses
in Selected San Francisco Neighborhoods

2014_2BR-Condo-Median-Prices

2014_3-4BR-House-Median-Prices

Distribution of House Sales by Sales Price

This chart breaks down 2014 San Francisco houses sales by sales price segment in $250,000 increments: the $750,000 to $1,000,000 segment (dark green column) had the most sales — the median house sales price over the entire period was approximately $1,060,000.

2014_House-Sales-Price-Breakdown

Distribution of Condo & TIC Sales by Sales Price

The largest number of condo, co-op and TIC sales in San Francisco over this 12 month period was also in the $750,000 to $1,000,000 price segment (dark green column) — the median condo sales price over the period was approximately $950,000. Median sales prices of houses and condos in San Francisco have been converging lately as new construction condos – now coming on the market in increasing quantities – raise overall values.

2014_Condo-TIC_Sales-Prices-Breakdown

San Francisco Neighborhood Map

San_Francisco_Neighborhood_Map

SAN FRANCISCO REALTOR DISTRICTS

District 1 (Northwest): Sea Cliff, Lake Street, Richmond (Inner, Central, Outer), Jordan Park/Laurel Heights, Lone Mountain

District 2 (West): Sunset & Parkside (Inner, Central, Outer), Golden Gate Heights

District 3 (Southwest): Lake Shore, Lakeside, Merced Manor, Merced Heights, Ingleside, Ingleside Heights, Oceanview

District 4 (Central SW): St. Francis Wood, Forest Hill, West Portal, Forest Knolls, Diamond Heights, Midtown Terrace, Miraloma Park, Sunnyside, Balboa Terrace, Ingleside Terrace, Mt. Davidson Manor, Sherwood Forest, Monterey Heights, Westwood Highlands

District 5 (Central): Noe Valley, Eureka Valley/Dolores Heights (Castro, Liberty Hill), Cole Valley, Glen Park, Corona Heights, Clarendon Heights, Ashbury Heights, Buena Vista Park, Haight Ashbury, Duboce Triangle, Twin Peaks, Mission Dolores, Parnassus Heights

District 6 (Central North): Hayes Valley, North of Panhandle (NOPA), Alamo Square, Western Addition, Anza Vista, Lower Pacific Heights

District 7 (North): Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow, Marina

District 8 (Northeast): Russian Hill, Nob Hill, Telegraph Hill, North Beach, Financial District, North Waterfront, Downtown, Van Ness/ Civic Center, Tenderloin

District 9 (East): SoMa, South Beach, Mission Bay, Potrero Hill, Dogpatch (Central Waterfront), Bernal Heights, Inner Mission, Yerba Buena

District 10 (Southeast): Bayview, Bayview Heights, Excelsior, Portola, Visitacion Valley, Silver Terrace, Mission Terrace, Crocker Amazon, Outer Mission

Some Realtor districts contain neighborhoods that are relatively homogeneous in general home values, such as districts 5 and 7, and others contain neighborhoods of wildly different values, such as district 8 which, for example, includes both Russian Hill and the Tenderloin.

What San Francisco Home-Buyers Bought in 2014

12 Dec 2014 Posted by NooshiAdmin in Newsletter

Penthouses, Probates, Lofts, Mansions & Fixer-Uppers

What San Francisco Home-Buyers Bought in 2014

How many San Francisco home sales were… Victorians, Edwardians or Art Deco? Condos in doorman buildings? Artist live-work lofts? Probate or bank sales? Without parking? Under $500,000? Over $5 million? Tenant occupied? Had Golden Gate or Bay Bridge views? What were the oldest house sale, the biggest condo sale and the median sales price for a 2-unit building?

Below are answers to those and a hundred other questions about real estate prices, neighborhoods, architecture, amenities, views, home types and sizes. San Francisco has one of the most interesting real estate markets in the world and we hope you enjoy some of the details.

Adjusting your screen-view to zoom 125% or 150% will make the charts that much easier to read. A map of SF Neighborhoods can be found at the bottom of this report.

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Map of San Francisco Neighborhoods

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SAN FRANCISCO REALTOR DISTRICTS

District 1 (Northwest): Sea Cliff, Lake Street, Richmond (Inner, Central, Outer), Jordan Park/Laurel Heights, Lone Mountain

District 2 (West): Sunset & Parkside (Inner, Central, Outer), Golden Gate Heights

District 3 (Southwest): Lake Shore, Lakeside, Merced Manor, Merced Heights, Ingleside, Ingleside Heights, Oceanview

District 4 (Central SW): St. Francis Wood, Forest Hill, West Portal, Forest Knolls, Diamond Heights, Midtown Terrace, Miraloma Park, Sunnyside, Balboa Terrace, Ingleside Terrace, Mt. Davidson Manor, Sherwood Forest, Monterey Heights, Westwood Highlands

District 5 (Central): Noe Valley, Eureka Valley/Dolores Heights (Castro, Liberty Hill), Cole Valley, Glen Park, Corona Heights, Clarendon Heights, Ashbury Heights, Buena Vista Park, Haight Ashbury, Duboce Triangle, Twin Peaks, Mission Dolores, Parnassus Heights

District 6 (Central North): Hayes Valley, North of Panhandle (NOPA), Alamo Square, Western Addition, Anza Vista, Lower Pacific Heights

District 7 (North): Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights, Cow Hollow, Marina

District 8 (Northeast): Russian Hill, Nob Hill, Telegraph Hill, North Beach, Financial District, North Waterfront, Downtown, Van Ness/ Civic Center, Tenderloin

District 9 (East): SoMa, South Beach, Mission Bay, Potrero Hill, Dogpatch, Bernal Heights, Inner Mission, Yerba Buena

District 10 (Southeast): Bayview, Bayview Heights, Excelsior, Portola, Visitacion Valley, Silver Terrace, Mission Terrace, Crocker Amazon, Outer Mission

Some Realtor districts contain neighborhoods that are relatively homogeneous in general home values, such as districts 5 and 7, and others contain neighborhoods of wildly different values, such as district 8 which includes both Russian Hill and the Tenderloin.

Sales information as reported to and described in San Francisco MLS through late November 2014. These analyses were performed in good faith with data derived from sources deemed reliable, but they may contain errors and are subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.